Stuck on the launchpad
The natural rhythms of the political cycle are a poor fit for startups, this year especially.
The importance of starting now
For anything new to make a major difference in the 2022 midterms, it likely needs to start being created today. The reason is simple:
For something new to make a difference in November '22, it needs to be widely adopted by mid-'22.
For it to be widely adopted by mid-'22, it needs to have clear proof points by early '22.
For it to have clear proof points by early '22, early adopters need to use it by late '21.
For early adopters to use it by late '21, it needs to be marketed by mid-'21.
And for it to be marketed by mid-'21, it needs to be built… now.
The challenge of starting now
There’s just one problem: The political world’s natural rhythms seem ill-suited to support new projects now. Donors and organizations are still debriefing and determining budgets and strategies. Voter files haven’t come back, which delays the best analyses of what worked and what didn’t. Donors only just finished writing large checks for the prior cycle. So the first several months of the year naturally become a period of sense-making and course-charting.1
Established organizations can manage this cycle, by saving enough in reserves to last through this period.
The problem with starting later
A period of low donor activity keeps new projects stuck on the launchpad long enough to materially reduce their chances of big impact in 2022. A slow period also threatens the viability of young organizations that didn’t have the luxury of building reserves in 2020.
What to do?
There’s no simple or easy answer. I’m sending money now to organizations I know I’ll fund this year, and pushing myself to take more meetings than feels natural given my lack of clear vision for the cycle ahead.
Unfortunately, the political innovation ecosystem is mostly supported by the generosity of fewer than ~10 major donors. Their timing becomes the sector’s timing.
Closing questions
Are you seeing a similar phenomenon?
If so, how are you managing it?
This year is even more challenging, because the election cycle ended not on November 3rd but on January 5th (the Georgia election). Or maybe the 6th (the insurrection). Or maybe the 20th (inauguration, finally). Therefore, much of this work that might have occurred in Nov-Dec 2020 instead took place in Jan-Feb 2021.