Nobody can say what "moderate" means

After years in politics, I learned that "moderate" has no definition.

I was surprised to learn that the word “moderate” has no agreed-upon definition. For example, the word does not:

• Mean that someone supports popular policies;

• Refer to a large bloc of voters with centrist opinions;

• Have any consistent definition among political professionals or voters;

• Have a useful definition in the dictionary.

As a result, the word “moderate” is worse than nonsense; it doesn’t mean anything, but people think it does.

It took me years in politics to realize this. Here’s a summary so you can get there faster.

Prominent “moderates” disagree on the meaning

I asked two prominent Democratic “moderates” for their definition of the word, and they gave different answers.

First I asked a leading figure in the “moderate” Democratic ecosystem. Then I asked a prominent politician described as “moderate” by major media. Both gave me perfectly fine definitions, but the definitions didn’t match, indicating that even prominent “moderates” lack a shared definition.¹

But that’s just two conversations. Maybe if we paid someone to speak with lots of “moderates,” more clarity would emerge? Nope.

The New York Times says nobody agrees

In June 2022, the New York Times published a ten-thousand-word feature on “The Vanishing Moderate Democrat.” The reporter finds:

While there is a growing group of Democrats who believe that their party needs to become more moderate, it’s not clear that any of them agree on — or, in some cases, even know — what it means to be a moderate Democrat anymore.

This confusion isn’t limited to political elites; voters don’t agree on a meaning either.

“Moderate” voters mostly aren’t centrist

A plurality of Americans (including me) self-identify as “moderate.” But this group holds widely varied beliefs, indicating that they use the word to mean different things. Writing in 538, here’s how political scientist Lee Drutman maps their opinions:²

And it’s not just the self-identified “moderates” who have disparate views. Poll respondents labeled as “moderate” often aren’t; “When you dig into their policy positions, the people who show up as moderates in polls are actually pretty damn extreme,” wrote Ezra Klein in 2015.

Other studies reach similar conclusions, that the middle third of the electorate is very much not a centrist voting bloc. Pew Research recently described the middle third as having “very little in common politically [except] relatively low interest in politics[.]”

Not finding any answers from the political world, I tried the dictionary - but without success.

The dictionary doesn’t help

The dictionary defines moderate as "having moderate political views or policies." That’s circular and not helpful.

Wikipedia is more concrete: “A moderate is considered someone occupying any mainstream position, avoiding extreme views.”

“Extreme views” are presumably unpopular, whereas “mainstream position[s]” are by definition reasonably popular. So maybe politicians labeled “moderate” are popularists, i.e. they support the most popular policies, or at least avoid very unpopular positions? This would make sense, but no.

Prominent “moderates” are not popularists

As used by the media, “moderate” is not a synonym for “popularist,” nor does it mean that someone avoids extremely unpopular positions.

For example, noted “moderate” senators Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema are not popularists; they support some popular policies and some unpopular ones. They also oppose some very popular policies.³ Sinema opposed one of the most popular policies I've ever seen polled; this non-mainstream view doesn’t stop her from being called a “moderate.”⁴

Conversely, politicians labeled “progressive”⁵ aren’t anti-popularists. Like Manchin and Sinema, “progressive” politicians support and oppose a mix of popular and unpopular policies.⁶ Both “moderates” and “progressives” would say their agenda is closer to true public opinion, but neither group is strictly popularist.

Conclusion: The word has no definition

A definition is “a statement of the exact meaning of a word, especially in a dictionary.”

The word “moderate” has no definition:

• The dictionary’s definition is tautological, and Wikipedia’s doesn’t match how the word is used.

• I used to think “moderate” meant popularist, but that’s not how media uses the term.

• Prominent “moderates” and political experts disagree on the meaning.

• Self-identified “moderates” have varying and often-extreme opinions.

So what do people mean when they say “moderate?” Is it just about vibes? Or is there some policy component - and if so, what is it?

My best answer is from Jonathan Chait, who says that “the press defines moderation as disagreement with the party.” Unfortunately that definition is fatally flawed; if you disagree with the party’s most popular policies, you are not really a “moderate.” Until someone can propagate a shared definition, the confusion will continue.

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1. The leading figure in the “moderate” Democratic ecosystem defined moderates as those who: 1. Come from a purple district; 2. Believe in capitalism; 3. Are willing to compromise; and 4. Are less ambitious in the things they try to do.  The politician didn’t have a pithy definition, but associates the following positions with moderates: 1. Keeping communities safe, and supporting first responders like police and veterans; 2. Being more fiscally responsible than others, focusing on paying down debt and keeping taxes down; 3. Generally believing in the importance of bipartisanship.

2. Drutman points out a similar phenomenon among the 40% of voters who self-identify as independents; he finds that roughly three quarters are “pretend independents” who are actually partisans, leaving just 15% “real” independents. Heightening the confusion, the groups of self-identified “moderates,” “independents,” and “undecideds” are mostly non-overlapping.

3. Popular policies that Manchin and/or Sinema have opposed include: Allowing Medicare to negotiate drug prices (+75 support); Expanding Medicare to include vision, dental, and hearing (+72); and the pro-union PRO Act (+29). Unpopular policies they’ve supported are preserving lower tax on carried interest (-64), and allowing fossil fuel lobbyists to work in government (-22). I’m very grateful to Lew Blank and Julia Jeanty for providing these examples and those in Footnote 6.

4. The specifics don’t matter, but the policy is allowing Medicare to negotiate drug prices, with net support of +75.

5. “Progressive” is another word with no shared definition!

6. Popular policies supported by some progressives include several of those listed in Footnote 3, as well as additional government investment in clean energy production (+55). Unpopular policies supported by some progressives include abolishing the death penalty (-22) and decriminalizing border crossings (-39).