Fermi estimates for political startups and funders
Love this. Didn’t know the name of this, but did a few calculations before the 2022 election like ...
10% chance the House is decided by 1 vote
10% greater likelihood of flipping a House seat with $1m in an R+4 seat early in cycle
1% chance of $1m having flipping House
Super helpful. As someone doing the work, understanding how to test and validate assumptions at every stage of the impact funnel is the challenge - and also an important hedge about big investments that don't make a difference. Thanks for sharing.
Love this. Didn’t know the name of this, but did a few calculations before the 2022 election like ...
10% chance the House is decided by 1 vote
10% greater likelihood of flipping a House seat with $1m in an R+4 seat early in cycle
1% chance of $1m having flipping House
Super helpful. As someone doing the work, understanding how to test and validate assumptions at every stage of the impact funnel is the challenge - and also an important hedge about big investments that don't make a difference. Thanks for sharing.